The methanol market trend stabilized last week and the market is expected to focus on narrow fluctuations

The market in East China has shown signs of stabilization, with slight price declines observed. The mainstream offer price ranged between 2140 and 2240 yuan, a decrease of 10 yuan from the previous week. As methanol prices on the international market continued to fall, this encouraged more active import transactions, leading to increased short-term speculation. Domestic methanol prices were around 2,100 yuan, down by 50 yuan compared to the prior week. With rising imports, the share of domestic sources in the market is gradually shrinking. Methanol stock levels in major East China ports remain above 50,000 tons, and shipments from the Middle East have been arriving steadily, ensuring ample supply. In South China, shipment volumes declined slightly, while prices remained relatively stable. The mainstream offer price was between 2,300 and 2,400 yuan, with the lower end dropping by 50 yuan from the previous week. The arrival cost for domestic methanol in the region was 2,250–2,300 yuan, also down by 50 yuan. Although international methanol prices continued to fall, the majority of goods arriving in South China were pre-arranged, so the arrival costs remained largely unchanged. Central China saw a slight price drop, but the decline slowed. The mainstream price range was 1,950–2,200 yuan, with the lower end down 50 yuan. In Henan, methanol prices stabilized, with ex-factory prices ranging from 1,800 to 1,900 yuan, down 50 yuan from the previous week. In the two lakes area, manufacturers quoted 1,950–2,200 yuan, with the lower end also falling by 50 yuan. Sales activity was mainly in the 1,950–2,100 yuan range, with fewer high-end transactions. Jiangxi methanol factories started at a lower price, with ex-factory prices at 2,200 yuan, down 50 yuan from the previous week. North China's market trend showed some stability, with slight price declines. The mainstream market price was 1,750–1,950 yuan, with the lower end down 50 yuan. Weakness in surrounding markets and reduced support from low-cost sources led to smaller price drops in Hebei. The main quotation there was 1,850–1,900 yuan, down 30 yuan. In Shanxi, methanol plant operating rates remained controlled, but slow sales led to inventory pressure, keeping ex-factory prices slightly lower. The current ex-factory price range is 1,650–1,800 yuan, with the lower end down 50 yuan. It’s expected that further declines may occur. In the Northeast region, transaction volumes remained steady, but prices fell as major local producers cut their ex-factory prices. The current mainstream market price was 2,100–2,250 yuan, with the higher end down 50 yuan. Due to the influx of low-cost sources from neighboring regions, methanol producers adjusted their prices last week. Kazakhstan’s ex-factory price for methanol gasification was 2,050–2,200 yuan (low-end is customs price, high-end is local price), which remained flat from the previous week. Daqing Chemical quoted 2,050–2,350 yuan (low-end is customs price, high-end is local price), down 100 yuan from the previous week. In the Southwest region, supply remained sufficient, and prices dropped significantly. The mainstream offer price was 1,950–2,050 yuan, down 100–150 yuan from the previous week. Sinopec Chuanwei and Sichuan Jiangyou methanol plants are operating normally. Due to abundant supply, buyer interest remains low. Major local manufacturers offered prices between 1,700–2,000 yuan, down 50–100 yuan. The province's foreign price was 1,700–1,800 yuan, with the lower end down 50 yuan. Local regional prices were 1,950–2,000 yuan, down 100–150 yuan. Looking ahead, the overall domestic methanol production is still low, easing supply pressure. However, the continuous drop in international methanol prices has driven more imports, increasing market supply. The key factor influencing future price trends will be changes in import prices. Additionally, if domestic plant operating rates do not rebound, the market is likely to remain within a narrow fluctuation range, with limited further declines.

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