The methanol market trend stabilized last week and the market is expected to focus on narrow fluctuations

The market in East China showed signs of stabilization, with prices experiencing a slight decline. The mainstream offer price ranged from 2140 to 2240 yuan, a decrease of 10 yuan compared to the previous week. As methanol prices on the international market continued to drop, this encouraged more active import activities, leading to increased short-term speculation. Domestic methanol prices were around 2,100 yuan, down 50 yuan from the prior week. With the rise in imports, the share of domestic methanol in the market has gradually decreased. Inventory levels in major ports in East China remained above 50,000 tons, and shipments from the Middle East arrived steadily, ensuring sufficient supply. In South China, the volume of shipments declined slightly, while prices remained relatively stable. The mainstream offer price was between 2,300 and 2,400 yuan, with the lower end dropping by 50 yuan compared to the previous week. The arrival cost for domestic methanol in the region was between 2,250 and 2,300 yuan, down 50 yuan from the previous week. Although international methanol prices continued to fall, most goods arriving in South China were pre-arranged, so the arrival cost remained unchanged. In Central China, the market saw a slight price decline, but the rate of decrease slowed. The mainstream price range was 1,950 to 2,200 yuan, with the lower end falling by 50 yuan. Henan's methanol market stabilized, with ex-factory prices ranging from 1,800 to 1,900 yuan, down 50 yuan. In the two lakes area, manufacturers quoted 1,950 to 2,200 yuan, with the lower end down 50 yuan. Transactions occurred mainly in the 1,950 to 2,100 yuan range, with limited high-end activity. Jiangxi's methanol factories started at a low price, with ex-factory prices at 2,200 yuan, down 50 yuan from the previous week. In North China, the market trend gradually stabilized, with prices falling slightly. The mainstream market price was 1,750 to 1,950 yuan, with the lower end down 50 yuan. The Hebei market saw a smaller price drop due to weaker regional demand and reduced support from low-cost sources. The main quotation was 1,850 to 1,900 yuan, down 30 yuan from the previous week. In Shanxi, production rates remained controlled, but slow sales led to inventory pressure, keeping ex-factory prices slightly lower. Current prices stood at 1,650 to 1,800 yuan, with the lower end down 50 yuan. A further decline is expected. In the Northeast, transactions remained stable, but prices fell as local major producers cut their ex-factory prices. The current mainstream market price was 2,100 to 2,250 yuan, with the upper end down 50 yuan. Due to the influx of low-cost imports from neighboring regions, prices were adjusted in the previous week. Kazakhstan’s ex-factory price for methanol gasification was 2,050 to 2,200 yuan (with the lower end being the customs price and the upper end the local price), remaining flat from the previous week. Daqing Chemical quoted 2,050 to 2,350 yuan, with the lower end being the customs price and the upper end the local price, down 100 yuan from the previous week. In the Southwest, supply was adequate, and prices dropped significantly. The mainstream offer price was 1,950 to 2,050 yuan, down 100 to 150 yuan from the previous week. Sinopec Chuanwei and Sichuan Jiangyou methanol plants are operating normally. However, due to ample supply, buyer interest remained low. Major local producers offered prices between 1,700 and 2,000 yuan, down 50 to 100 yuan from the previous week. The provincial foreign price was 1,700 to 1,800 yuan, with the lower end down 50 yuan. Local prices in the region were 1,950 to 2,000 yuan, down 100 to 150 yuan from the previous week. Looking ahead, the overall domestic methanol operating rate remains low, easing supply pressure. However, the continuous drop in international methanol prices has driven more imports, increasing market supply. The key factor influencing future trends will be changes in import prices. Additionally, if domestic production does not rebound, the market is expected to remain within a narrow fluctuation range, with only a modest decline.

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