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Looking back at the trend of nickel prices in the past four months, the overall situation fluctuated and the external market was slightly stronger than the internal market.
Stainless steel is still the basis of nickel price trend. The market expects stainless steel to be more consistent: the first quarter due to the Spring Festival factor and demand recovery is slower than the same period last year, resulting in weaker demand for stainless steel in the first quarter to the second quarter, but the domestic economic pull will still drive the demand for stainless steel. Recovery, the annual growth rate is expected to remain basically the same as last year or slightly lower.
New energy vehicle factors remain a major source of market volatility. From the point of view of the processing difference of nickel sulfate, once the price difference exceeds 6,000 yuan from below, the market sentiment tends to be optimistic. In the trend, the price of nickel and nickel sulphate will increase, but the overall increase of nickel sulphate price will be greater than the price of nickel. Therefore, from the technical and statistical point of view, the processing price difference of just over 6,000 yuan is the safety margin for doing the multi-processing price difference, and the processing price difference of about 8,000 yuan is the opportunity to enter the short-selling price difference.
From the fundamentals of new energy vehicles, the biggest expectation is that the national policy stipulates that by 2020, the number of new energy vehicles will reach more than 2 million vehicles. To achieve this goal, the annual growth rate of new energy vehicles will remain at least 40%. In fact, from another perspective, even if the growth rate of new energy vehicles in some months or even a year does not meet the 40% growth rate, this means that new energy vehicles will probably far exceed 40% in the next years. increase.
In the industrial chain, although the supply of nickel sulphate exceeded demand in 2017, the expansion rate of ternary material manufacturers is still higher than the expansion rate of nickel sulphate capacity of about 56.5%, which leads to the expected shortage of nickel sulphate end supply. The ternary material to the battery factory end, the ternary material end is subject to the high price of cobalt, and has to continuously increase the proportion of nickel in the ternary battery. At the same time, because the new energy automobile industry is in the growth stage, the battery model does not form an industry standard and a relatively consistent classification, and the ternary material factory produces ternary materials corresponding to different types of batteries according to the battery factory orders, thus objectively causing ternary The material factory has a high inventory, and its inventory depreciation risk and capital turnover risk are high. The ternary material plant was squeezed by the upstream materials and the downstream stocks, and there is a natural expansionary power to ensure that the purpose of the growth of the secondary enterprises is not eliminated first, resulting in the current situation that the supply of ternary materials is greater than the demand for batteries. From the battery factory to the new energy vehicle production side, the larger battery manufacturers in the market often cooperate with the mainstream manufacturers of new energy vehicles such as Tesla , Samsung, LG, etc. or they are the upstream of the new energy vehicle manufacturer's industrial chain. This indicates that the battery industry is in the stage of industrial integration. Enterprises in the industry may be integrated or acquired by downstream automobile manufacturers. The operational risks of small and medium-sized battery factories will further increase. In the future, the integration trend of new energy vehicle manufacturers' industrial chain will continue from the battery end to the ternary material end and raw material integration production expansion.
Returning to the advantages of nickel sulphate production of nickel sulphate and other raw materials for the production of nickel sulphate, the comprehensive cost of producing nickel sulphate from nickel beans is lower than the combined cost of producing nickel sulphate with nickel hydroxy powder, nickel hydroxide, etc. The overall cost of nickel sulfate is closer, but higher than the combined cost of remelting nickel sulfate crystals. From this point of view, in the market where the supply of nickel sulfate is tight, the dissolution of nickel beans in sulfuric acid to produce nickel sulfate is one of the best solutions to the shortage of nickel sulfate. At the same time, compared with the reduction of nickel powder to produce nickel sulfate, the supply of nickel beans is larger and more stable, and the price elasticity of using nickel beans to produce nickel sulfate as a substitute is lower than that of other raw materials. That is, the risk of fluctuations in production costs is lower, and companies and markets also have the incentive to buy nickel beans when the price difference between nickel and nickel sulfate is appropriate. Therefore, through nickel beans, the relationship between nickel sulfate price and nickel price will be closer (they are also produced from nickel sulfide ore, and the correlation between the two is higher in the case of nickel sulfate production of nickel sulfate). The performance is that when the nickel price falls, the lower limit of nickel price calculated by nickel sulfate will be one of the more favorable supports for nickel.
Source: China Securities Network
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