Commercial Vehicle Industry December Sales Data Review

In 2006, the automotive industry sold a total of 7,215,972 vehicles of various types, which represented a year-on-year increase of 25%. Among them, 5,175,961 were sold by passenger vehicles, up 30% year-on-year. Cumulative sales of commercial vehicles totaled 2,040,011 vehicles. , a year-on-year increase of 14%. Among the subdivisions, semi-trailer tractors grew fastest, at 63%, followed by cars, up 37% year-on-year. In the commercial vehicle subcompact industry, the highest sales increase was for heavy trucks, accumulating all types of sales. Heavy trucks accounted for 307,296 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 31%; the slowest growth rate was for medium trucks, only 4%. The trend of the heavy and lightly polarized development of the truck industry is obvious; we believe that the semi-trailer trucks in 2007 will maintain rapid growth. We have a neutral attitude toward the heavy truck chassis sales outlook, but it may exceed our expectation. The heavy truck industry in 2007 and 2008 will grow at a rate of 14%. The change in the heavy truck industry's competitive landscape is the second tier of Shaanxi Auto and Foton's high-speed growth. The total market share of the top six companies in the industry dropped from 95% in 2004 to 89% in 2006. North Benz, Anhui Valin and Jianghuai Automobile have become the fastest-growing companies among small companies; the annual sales of the bus industry 140,336 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 21%. We expect the industry growth rates in July and 2008 to be 12% and 8% respectively. In terms of industry competition, Yutong and Jinlong have obvious industry leading advantages. After the successful implementation of the factory relocation in 2006, Daikin (Xiamen Jinlong United) The output exceeded 10,000 units and became the fourth company in the industry after Yutong, Xiaojinlong and Suzhou Jinlong to become the “Million Taiwan Club” in the passenger car industry. All three Jinlong Group's production and sales scale exceeded 10,000 units. It is expected that it will be difficult to see the fifth millionaires in production and sales in the next two years. Of the listed companies, China National Heavy Duty Trucks has sold 60,173 vehicles, an increase of 37% year-on-year, and its growth structure is the most balanced; , 611 units, an increase of 104% year-on-year, and its product mix adjustments are in line with industry development trends; passenger car industry Ankai and Xiajin United (Dajinlong) have the highest growth rates, respectively 61% and 39%; from 2007 It is expected that compared with the current valuation level of the secondary market, we propose to focus on Jinlong Motors. Its 2007 dynamic P/E ratio is only 16 times, and there is still 38% upside from our target price.

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