Chemical industry influences differentiation

Since July 2014, international oil prices have fallen sharply, and the cumulative decline has exceeded 25%. The monitoring data of large-scale market organizations and business clubs shows that the collapse of oil prices has already begun to “divide” some of the commodities including the chemical and energy sectors.

For the chemical industry, the impact of falling oil prices has been mixed. Analysis by brokerages and research reports shows that the drop in oil prices means lower costs for the downstream fine chemical industry, but for coal chemical industry, due to competition with crude oil, the profit margin may be further reduced.

Good downstream of fine chemicals

The chemical industry double-weekly report released by Lianxun Securities on November 7 showed that the price of oil was sluggish, and chemical products lacked upward momentum.

According to statistics from Lianxun Securities, the top five products in the current two-week period (October 27 to November 7) were NYMEX Natural Gas, MEG, Sulfur, Natural Rubber, and Aniline; Biweekly declines topped the list. The five products are PX, butadiene, butadiene rubber, PTA and toluene. In the drop list, under the influence of low international oil prices, petrochemical industry products have lost cost support. Under the action of the industrial chain, prices have fallen, and the top toluene, PTA, PX, and butadiene in the current decline are petrochemicals. Upstream products, the market outlook is expected to run low.

Lianxun Securities reported that the recent international oil price is low and is expected to run low in the short term. Under this background, the petrochemical industry chain will lack cost support.

However, according to the Orient Securities Research Report, in the short term, companies will bear the impact of inventory depreciation losses, but in the medium to long term, the drop in oil prices will reduce the cost of production companies, which will obviously increase the gross profit for companies with pricing power. interest rate.

Coke oil profitability suppressed

“The drop in oil prices has a great impact on the coal chemical industry.” At a recent 2014 China International Coal Chemical Technology Exchange Conference and the third annual meeting of China Coal Chemical Industry, an insider of the coal chemical industry expressed emotion.

According to the reporter's understanding, the drop in oil prices has caused certain impacts on coal-to-olefins and coal-to-oil and other industries in the new coal chemical industry, because coal and oil, which are raw materials, have a competitive relationship in price.

At the above meeting, an authoritative source in the energy industry revealed that the Shenhua Ordos coal-to-oil project had realized a 1.2 billion yuan in profits from January to September of this year, including a tax of 800 million yuan and a profit of 400 million yuan. At the current crude oil price level, coal-to-oil projects still have relatively good earnings, but the decline in crude oil prices will make coal-to-liquids a challenge. The above person suggested that the coal chemical industry should consider a problem. If crude oil prices fall to 75 US dollars/barrel, what should be done with coal oil?

According to a weekly report of the petrochemical industry released by Minsheng Securities, Sinochem Synthetic Co., Ltd. has calculated the profitability balance of indirect coal-to-coal oil. Under the condition of coal price of RMB 400/ton, the price of oil is US$80/barrel, indirect coal. Oil production will still have some profit, but when oil prices drop to $60/barrel, profitability is very difficult.

The above-mentioned weekly information also stated that the relevant departments or the recent introduction of strict implementation of the levy of refined oil consumption tax regulations, coal-based oil-related enterprises or not only pay back the consumption tax, but also to pay late fees, the current stakeholders are still making the final game.

The analysis from coal chemical industry stated that although oil prices began to decline at the end of the third quarter of 2014, compared to petroleum, the international trade of coal has a small share in consumption, and it is more of a regional market. Considering China's restrictions on coal consumption, the future price of domestic coal is still a high probability event, so the profitability of coal-to-oil projects may be stronger, and there is little likelihood that its products will be overlaid or material prices will rise sharply. Especially in the long run, coal prices are linked to oil prices, and oil prices tend to rise faster than coal.

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