Survey on Current Situation of China's Electric Vehicles: Four Challenges in Industry Development (II)

Dongfeng Yulon: Batteries are strong

"I have to admit that Taiwan's electronics industry is indeed more developed." After visiting the Dongfeng Yulon booth, automotive service provider Wang Jun told the "First Financial Daily". On the same day, Dongfeng Yulon released its pure electric vehicle Neora for the first time in China. Compared with other companies, Dongfeng Yulon’s strong advantages in battery technology were highlighted.

Neora's high-power integrated rechargeable battery system can charge 80% of battery power in an hour. Under the condition that the lithium battery of 48kwh is fully charged, this car will be able to travel more than 400km under different driving conditions in the city and high speed. A person driving a BYD E6 test vehicle told the reporter that the total weight of the BYD E6 pure electric vehicle is 2.3 tons, of which the battery is about 1 ton, but the single-ride mileage is only 300 kilometers (at a given speed and constant speed). Dongfeng Yulon's electric vehicle battery weighs about 400 kilograms, but a single trip can reach 350 kilometers.

Dong Li, executive vice president of Dongfeng Yulong, said that the Dongfeng Yulon joint venture will be formally established next month. After the completion of the company, electric vehicles will be developed simultaneously with the implementation of gasoline vehicles. Models including electric vehicles will be launched on the market in 2012.

Mr. Ni Kaiming, President and CEO of Volkswagen China: mass production of affordable electric vehicles in accordance with the global rules of Volkswagen, the newly appointed senior executives will not accept any interview within three months, but has just arrived in China less than a month after the arrival of the Volkswagen China. The new president and CEO Ni Kaiming is an exception.

The reason is simple. Ni Kaiming is an electric vehicle expert. In the two experiences of the Volkswagen Group headquarters, Ni Kaiming’s positions were the technical director of the Volkswagen brand electric vehicle division and the head of the Volkswagen Group’s electric vehicle business. The first job he returned to the public in 2009 was to set about developing the public's global electric vehicle strategy. This strategy was finally announced to the world in April of this year. In 2018, Volkswagen will become the global market leader in electric vehicles, and its full range of models can occupy 3% of the electric vehicle market.

In this strategy, Volkswagen implements a modularization strategy and realizes flexible integration of hybrid and electric technologies on multiple platforms of all brands of the Group, which further strengthens its technical capabilities in this area.

At that time, Ni Kaiming was the electric chief technology officer of the Volkswagen Group. As China's most important global automotive market, the success of electric vehicle strategy directly determines the success or failure of its global strategy. Therefore, one month ago, when Ni Kaiming was pushed to the most dazzling seat of the Chinese people in the public empire, the hearts of the public were well known.

In the Volkswagen China electric vehicle strategy, Volkswagen will introduce hybrid and electric vehicle technology into China, and will start producing electric vehicles in China between 2013 and 2014. In the entire electric vehicle strategy of the Volkswagen Group, the China Electric Vehicle Strategy is the first electric vehicle strategy developed by the Volkswagen Group for the local market.

It seems that this is indeed a step-by-step plan. However, in the past few months, the actions of two other car giants on electric vehicles have clearly captured the limelight of Volkswagen.

In July, Nissan Motor announced that it will formally start sales of its pure electric vehicle in Japan, North America, Europe, and China in late 2010 and early 2011, and sell it worldwide in 2012. VOLT7, a GM-extended program, has already started selling in the United States in July and has officially landed in China with the help of the Shanghai World Expo. It also announced that it will introduce sales in China next year.

In many cases, opportunities and opportunities are closely linked. If you look at this situation, it seems that the mass-produced electric cars that have been mass-produced two years later have already lost their opportunities.

“This is not considered a loss of opportunity. We must realize that the high price and low number of electric vehicles currently being implemented do not have market advantages. The electric vehicles launched by Volkswagen in 2013 will be produced through modularization, reducing battery costs, etc. It becomes a real electric vehicle that consumers can afford.” Ni Kaiming, who is an electric vehicle technology engineer, is not worried about losing such an “opportunity”.

On the contrary, Ni Kaiming is particularly optimistic about the electric vehicle market in China. "Compared to their imports in China, Nissan and General Motors, we will directly launch domestic electric vehicles in China in 2013. The price will not be high, and it will be a genuine electric vehicle that consumers can afford. "And Ni Kaiming believes that after pre-heating and gradual improvement of infrastructure, 2013 and 2014 will be the best time for Volkswagen to launch electric vehicles.

At this year's World Electric Vehicle Conference, Volkswagen has brought golf, LaVida electric vehicles and Touareg hybrid models. Among them, the world's best-selling version of the Golf electric version will be listed in 2013, and the mileage has reached 150 kilometers. The Lam Yi Electric Vehicle is a forward-looking public electric vehicle development in China. It is an electric vehicle developed in China and will be directly launched into the Chinese market in the future. The Touareg Hybrid is a model that demonstrates the hybrid power of Volkswagen.

Survey on the status of electric vehicles in China: The gap with overseas is still the “four challenges” facing the development of China's electric vehicle industry

● The roadmap for development needs to be clarified ● Bottlenecks in technology and industrialization still exist ● Lack of infrastructure and limited number of charging stations ● High price of electric vehicles and high operating costs Since the birth of the first electric car in the 19th century, electric vehicle technology has been ups and downs, and finally The 21st century is once again the focus of the global automotive industry.

Unlike in the past, this round of electric cars has been joined by China's climax. This country, which has become the world’s largest auto market, is actively and strongly promoting the development of electric vehicles with unprecedented momentum, with the intention of using electric vehicles. A wave of new industrial revolutions has emerged to achieve a curve overtaking and to find a place in the forest of the world’s automotive industry that matches the automobile power.

“China's development of electric vehicles is indeed facing unprecedented opportunities, but China is not actually on the same starting line with foreign giants in the field of electric vehicles, and the gap is still large.” At the electric car conference held in Shenzhen recently, the chairman of the World Electric Vehicle Conference Chen Qingquan, academician of the Chinese Academy of Engineering thinks.

Such judgments are similar to those of the research report on the road to low-carbon technology marketization: electric vehicles published by Climate Group and Bain Consulting. The report on the status quo of China's electric vehicles pointed out that China’s electric vehicles are developing rapidly and the government’s attitude is firm. However, it is still facing high levels of technological immaturity, industrial bottlenecks, lagging infrastructure, and relatively high prices for conventional vehicles that are relatively equally configured. Big challenges, it is difficult to achieve large-scale growth in the short term.

The roadmap needs to be clarified as an emerging technology. Electric vehicles may bring more opportunities for China's auto industry. Therefore, all sectors of the community, especially overseas, are very concerned about the choice of the technology route and industry development path for China, the world's largest auto market. However, the Bain Company's investigation report mentioned above shows that China's road maps in both areas have yet to be clarified.

In the selection of technology routes, the current mainstream views can be roughly divided into three categories. Among them, supporters of the “Directly Developed Pure Electric Vehicles” approach advocate that China’s electric vehicle industry should develop “leapfrog” so as to lead the world in the future; supporters of “developing from hybrid electric vehicles” believe that the market environment is not Under mature conditions, it is not possible to go beyond the necessary technological stage; the “hundred flowers” ​​path believes that multiple technologies should be developed together to meet different market needs.

The controversy over the technology roadmap has led companies to hesitate to select key technological developments.

In 2009, the road map for China's new energy vehicles began to take off. The “Industrial Adjustment and Revitalization Plan” promulgated by the State Council in early 2009 put forward “the formation of new energy production capacity of 500,000 pure electric vehicles, rechargeable hybrid vehicles and ordinary hybrid vehicles; and promotion of pure electric vehicles, rechargeable hybrid vehicles and their key components. "Industrialization" and other content, so many people in the industry smelling sensitive to see the government-led direction.

Electric vehicles are now almost synonymous with China's new energy sources, including Toyota and other car companies that had previously promoted hybrid power in China. They have started strategic shifts, but they have not shown a true technology roadmap from a national strategic perspective.

As the technology roadmap is not quite clear, the development path of China's new energy vehicles is another controversial topic. The development of China's auto industry has experienced the process from technology introduction, digestion and absorption to independent research and development. For the emerging electric vehicle industry, it is necessary to follow the traditional development path of the automobile industry, or whether it should be independent research and development and take the initiative. There is still no conclusion yet.

The bottleneck of technology and industrialization still exists. The key technologies of electric vehicles include "three batteries (batteries, motors, electronic control)", chassis and vehicles. Among them, the chassis and the vehicle are more based on traditional automobiles. The "three powers" technology is a new technology that distinguishes electric cars from traditional cars. However, in these two areas, the gap between China and foreign countries is still large, with late investment, small scale, and backward technology.

The Japanese government has conducted research and development support for electric vehicles since 1971, and in 1996 it formulated a subsidy program for electric vehicles. As early as 1975, France established the "Electrical Vehicle Interagency Coordinating Committee" and started substantive work in 2002. The United States also began to accelerate the development of electric vehicles with legislation, government subsidies, and financial subsidies as early as 1976. The United Kingdom has been using electric cars for more than 50 years.

Compared with the aforementioned countries, the Chinese government has invested funds to support the research and development of electric vehicles in the “Eighth Five-Year Plan” and “Ninth Five-Year Plan” phases, but the real large-scale investment started at the “Tenth Five-Year Plan” stage. According to available data, during the “10th Five-Year Plan” period, the Ministry of Science and Technology invested more than 800 million yuan in the research and development of energy-saving and new energy. During the “Eleventh Five-Year Plan” period, the input of energy-saving and new energy major projects was 1.1 billion yuan. However, the total investment is too small compared to the billions of foreign countries.

In terms of corporate investment, China started late, including foreign auto makers such as GM, Toyota, and Honda. As early as the 1990s, large-scale investments have begun. However, Chinese companies’ research and development in electric vehicles and related fields is only the latest ten. Less than a year, and more of a trial investment.

Behind the later investment is the fact that related technologies are still lagging behind. According to a survey by Bain Company, as of the end of 2008, the gap between the number of patents for electric vehicles and the number of patents for electric vehicles for Chinese domestic and foreign automakers was significant. Among the top ten patents in electric vehicle patents, Toyota had the most, reaching 1,139, Mitsubishi, Honda, Nissan, etc. China's most famous electric car company BYD has only 109 items, and is the only Chinese car manufacturer listed on the list.

Directly embodied in the “three powers”, apart from the need for large-scale optimization of electric motors and electronic control technology, the gap in power batteries that China currently sees as an advantage is equally huge.

Taking lithium-ion batteries as an example, China is a major producer of lithium-ion power batteries, accounting for about 25% of the global market share, and has a good industrial base, and has formed a number of enterprises with industrial production capabilities. However, in fact, there is still a gap between the domestic production of lithium-ion battery technology and the international advanced level. Many core technologies and materials, such as separators and high-purity lithium hexafluorophosphate used in electrolytes, have not yet become industrialized. They still lag behind international advanced standards in certain important performance indicators such as energy density, life span, and safety.

Zhang Xiaoyu, vice chairman of the Machinery Federation, once revealed that more than 80% of the cathodes and battery separators of the core components of China's power batteries need to be imported.

The lack of infrastructure infrastructure construction is a necessary prerequisite for the large-scale application of electric vehicles in the future. Unfortunately, China's current infrastructure, such as charging stations, has not yet begun large-scale construction, and it can even be said that it is only at the initial stage. State Grid, China Southern Power Grid and CNOOC, etc. formally announced their entry into the field of electric vehicle infrastructure since 2009, and the number of charging stations built is limited.

According to incomplete statistics on public information, France has more than 200 charging stations, and Japan has more than 100 charging stations. In addition to the experimental charging stations in individual cities in China, the total number is limited.

The reason for this is the high cost of infrastructure, low returns, and the lack of standards for battery box charging interfaces. Even without considering the cost of land, the total investment in the battery rental station (without battery) for the construction of 50 electric buses will be up to 30 million to 40 million yuan; on the basis of the existing parking lot, 30 electric buses will be built. The total investment of the car charging station is 10 million yuan; the total investment for building a commercial charging station with 9 charging spaces is at least 5 million yuan; and the investment amount for a roadside charging device is at least 25,000 yuan.

As a result, electric vehicles are slow to develop due to lack of infrastructure, and the infrastructure is in an “absolute cycle” due to the limited number of electric vehicles and the lack of expansionary momentum for poor profitability.

The high cost of electric vehicles has brought about marketization problems. As a consumer product, the price of a car determines its market orientation. A survey shows that more than 70% of potential electric vehicle buyers in China are still paying attention to the price and the cost of use. They do not want to buy more expensive and more expensive vehicles than traditional cars, even if they are so-called eco-friendly vehicles.

However, the high cost is precisely the problem of the popularity of electric vehicles. Statistics show that at present, the price of a pure electric vehicle is almost 2 to 3 times the price of a traditional car. Even if it is a hybrid car, the price is much higher than that of a traditional car. This has largely inhibited consumer buying enthusiasm.

The key is the high cost of the power battery. In the production cost of the power car, the power battery accounts for about one-half, and the cost reduction of the power battery comes from the large-scale production and experience accumulation.

Compared with foreign countries, the subsidy programs that the Chinese government has already formulated are more for subsidy programs for group users, such as buses. For private purchases of consumer subsidy programs, although there are, but because of direct subsidies to manufacturers, so that consumers can hardly have a real feeling, and does not rule out the operation of the manufacturers, consumers have the concession to enjoy reduced preferences.

In view of many factors, the prospects for electric vehicles in China are bright, but the roads are winding.

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